The New Unemployment: Truck Transportation

The labor market, through indicators like non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, is a key measure of economic health. Sectors such as manufacturing, construction, retail, financial services, and professional services provide valuable insights into economic conditions. By analyzing these trends, macroeconomists and business leaders can better assess economic growth and anticipate changes. 

However, looking beyond broad employment categories can yield more precise economic insights. One sector worth considering is truck transportation employment. 

Truck Transporation’s Role in the Economy 

In 2023, trucks were estimated to transport over 50% of the total freight in the U.S., contributing around 3% to the nation’s GDP. This highlights trucking’s pivotal role in the economy. The industry moves a diverse range of goods, with consumer products accounting for about 35% of freight, followed by industrial goods (30%), agricultural products (10-15%), energy products (5-10%), hazardous materials (4-6%), and specialty items like automobiles (5-10%). E-commerce shipments contribute around 10-15%. ^[1]This broad distribution makes trucking a reliable cross-industry economic indicator. 

A Closer Look at the Truck Driving Labor Market 

Truck driving is one of the largest occupations, predominantly male, requiring minimal education and governed by distinct employment regulations. Drivers transport goods, requiring a commercial driver’s license and performing tasks such as vehicle inspections, securing cargo, and managing delivery documents. These drivers often work long hours, with median wages around $26.12 per hour.^[2] 

The truck-driving labor market is often described as dysfunctional due to driver shortages and high turnover. However, data from the Occupational Employment Statistics and the Current Population Survey reveal a more nuanced picture. While specific segments, like long-distance trucking, face challenges, the overall market operates within normal economic parameters, with stable or increasing employment and competitive wages. The issues appear localized rather than systemic. Higher earnings and long hours make truck drivers less likely to switch jobs. Similarly, those earning more in other sectors are less likely to enter trucking, while workers with long hours in other industries may be drawn to it. Despite reported challenges in recruitment and turnover, especially in long-haul segments, the labor market for truck drivers aligns with expected economic trends.^[3] 

Truck drivers may avoid similar jobs like bus driving or warehouse work due to differences in job conditions, such as the lack of long-distance travel or independence, lower pay, and less flexibility. These factors reduce job switching, making the trucking sector a stable employment indicator. 

In summary, truck transportation offers valuable economic insights through its direct link to freight movement and its labor market dynamics. Monitoring employment in this sector can serve as an early indicator of economic expansion or contraction. 

How the Leverage Trucking Employment for Business Insights  

If your business is directly or indirectly related to truck transportation, consider using it as a predictor. 
 
Ready Signal is a powerful data platform that helps you test and identify unique external factors from the macro environment surrounding your company and seamlessly integrate them into your predictive models, strategic planning, and decisioning. We bring this data to you directly from the sources you find most reliable, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, among many others. For your convenience, we are sharing this Excel document, populated with the features Truck Transportation Employees and the Unemployment Rate of US Civilians. Feel free to play around with this data and test it in your models.

If you uncover insights from this data or need further guidance, our team is here to support you. We can help you not only interpret the results but also enhance your analysis by incorporating our extensive library of macroeconomic indicators. Whether you’re looking for a deeper understanding of the data or seeking to integrate additional external factors, we’re ready to provide the expertise and resources necessary to drive smarter, data-driven decisions.